Can sinking England cast off shackles against dominant New Zealand?

While hosts Australia kept their 2022 ICC T20 World Cup title defence hopes alive with a comfortable win over Ireland, the other pre-tournament favourite in Group 1 are struggling to stay afloat. Jos Butter’s England are currently third on the table with three points after a scrappy win over Afghanistan and a DLS loss to Ireland, and now must defeat top-placed New Zealand to remain in the reckoning for the playoffs.

With last Friday’s England vs Australia match at the MCG washed out, Tuesday’s game is potentially a tournament-shaping clash. If New Zealand win, England are virtually out of the semi-finals race and Kane Williamson’s men will be assured of a place in the next round and Australia. If England win, the deciding semi-final spots will come down to NRR and Buttler’s team will then need to beat Sri Lanka in their last match. Should England beat New Zealand and Sri Lanka, they are almost certain to claim second spot in Group 1.

Australia’s win notwithstanding, their net run-rate (NRR)of -0.304 is still below England’s 0.239, so that is what in the end could decide who qualifies.

New Zealand have been the most impressive team alongside South Africa, dispatching Australia in their first match and then recovering against Sri Lanka thanks to a century for the ages from Glenn Phillips before Trent Boult and Tim Southee once again displayed their brilliance. An outstanding NRR of 3.850 and a full-strength XI puts New Zealand in pole position to reach the semi-finals.

TEAM NEWS

England

Ben Stokes’ batting form at No 4 is a concern, but the management is backing the world-class allrounder to hit his straps. Alex Hales has faded away after marking his return after three year with 53 in Pakistan, with scores of 26, 5, 1, 27, 18, 84, 4, 0, 19 and 7 since. His place could go to Phil Salt, who in T20Is this year is striking at 164.33.

Chris Woakes could also make way for David Willey, after conceding 41 runs from three wicketless overs against Ireland.

England likely XI: 1 Jos Buttler (capt/wk), 2 Alex Hales/Phil Salt, 3 Dawid Malan, 4 Ben Stokes, 5 Liam Livingstone, 6 Moeen Ali, 7 Harry Brook, 8 Sam Curran, 9 Chris Woakes/David Willey, 10 Adil Rashid, 11 Mark Wood

New Zealand

Finn Allen struggled to dominate spin in the win over Sri Lanka, but it is unlikely that he will make way for Martin Guptill given how he bossed Australia’s quicks in the Super 12s opener. Williamson’s struggles mean that the middle order has to click. No changes expected.

New Zealand likely XI: 1 Devon Conway, 2 Finn Allen, 3 Kane Williamson (capt), 4 Glenn Phillips, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Jimmy Neesham, 7 Mitchell Santner, 8 Tim Southee, 9 Ish Sodhi, 10 Lockie Ferguson, 11 Trent Boult

PITCH & CONDITIONS

The forecast for Tuesday in Brisbane is not very promising. There is rain on the cards, but during the first half of the day. Shared points won’t spell the end of England’s tournament, but they will still have to rely on other favourable results. Brisbane has encouraged pacers and spinners alike, and the onus will be batsmen to target the square boundaries as much as possible.

PREDICTION

New Zealand are the form team, once again showing why, despite some evident weaknesses, they are a formidable side at ICC events. If England don’t get early wickets, winning will become tougher. That brand of fearless cricket from Butter’s team is badly needed. Want a winner? Back New Zealand, with Boult and Southee starring, to hold out for a narrow victory.